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Paul's Observation
The current market reminds me, in some ways, of the decade between roughly 1992 and 2002. The economic circumstances are different, but the behaviour and mood of the market feel familiar. The national price-index charts from that period show a long stretch of restrained growth, frequent annual declines and very little of the sustained upward momentum that became common in later years.
Living and working through that market felt even slower than the chart now makes it appear. There seemed to be limited motivation for anyone to do anything in real estate. Buyers did not feel pressure to move quickly. Sellers often struggled to accept what the market was telling them. Properties could sit for extended periods with little activity, and many people within the industry eventually decided that the business was no longer for them. Yet homes still sold. People still married, separated, relocated, had children, retired and settled estates. Life continued to create real estate decisions, even when the market itself provided very little momentum.
Those transactions took more work. They required patience, regular communication, careful positioning and the ability to keep clients focused when very little appeared to be happening. Today’s market has some of that same character. For several years, one disruption has followed another. We moved from the pandemic into exceptionally low interest rates and a market that became almost impossible to control. That was followed by inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, tariffs and further volatility around oil and energy.
Every time one issue begins to settle, another seems to arrive. Buyers and sellers waiting for a completely calm and predictable market may be waiting for a long time. The more useful question is not when uncertainty will disappear, but how to make a good decision while it remains.
That is where the June numbers become particularly useful.
From a distance, the market looks stable. Prices are not moving dramatically in either direction, and properties continue to sell. But stability does not mean every seller has the same experience or every buyer has the same negotiating position. Guelph is not moving in precisely the same way as Centre Wellington. A downtown century home is not operating in the same market as a south-end condominium. A rural property, a Fergus bungalow and a newer detached home may each face very different levels of competition, demand and price sensitivity at exactly the same time.
Large urban and national media reports often speak about “the Canadian housing market” as though it were one market. It is not.
Real estate is local, and in a slower, more selective environment, it becomes increasingly specific. The most useful information may not be what happened across Canada, Ontario or even all of Guelph. It may be what has happened within a particular neighbourhood, property type and price range over the past 30 to 60 days. That level of detail matters because a stable regional average can hide both opportunity and risk.
A buyer may have considerable leverage in one segment and face competition in another. A seller may be well positioned at one price point but struggle only a few streets away because the available inventory and buyer pool are different. There is also a quieter change taking place within the real estate profession. The very largest and most visible agents are not necessarily gaining market share. In the first half of 2026, the top five and top ten Guelph agents actually lost a small amount of share. The gains were spread across the broader group of consistently productive agents, while the number of agents completing at least one transaction fell by almost 18%.
My observation is that many of the agents gaining ground are not necessarily the loudest. They are the steady professionals who have continued working through the slower periods, handling transactions and developing the judgement required when a deal is no longer straightforward. Regular exposure to pricing decisions, difficult negotiations, inspections, financing concerns and changing seller expectations builds a skill set that matters more when the market is not doing the work for you. Visibility alone is not enough in this market. Competence becomes easier to recognize.
That does not mean a skilled agent can manufacture demand or promise a result the market will not support. No agent can make a buyer pay more than a property is worth to them or create urgency where none exists. What a skilled local advisor can do is help a client understand the evidence, position properly, recognize when conditions are changing and respond before a difficult decision becomes an unnecessarily costly one.
For sellers, that work begins before the property reaches the market. Pricing and positioning should include clear expectations around showing activity, feedback and competing sales. It is much easier to make a thoughtful adjustment when the potential decision has been discussed in advance, rather than waiting until frustration and emotion have taken over.
For buyers, good advice goes well beyond locating homes online. It means understanding where negotiating leverage exists, recognizing when a property is genuinely well positioned, identifying the risks behind an attractive price and knowing when to proceed, adjust or walk away.
This may be the market that reminds our industry what a true fiduciary agent is supposed to look like.
That means putting the client’s interests first, explaining the evidence clearly, identifying the trade-offs and being willing to recommend waiting, adjusting or walking away when that is the right advice.
Quite frankly, I welcome it. Because in a market that appears stable from a distance but varies considerably beneath the surface, buyers and sellers do not need louder predictions.
They need better guidance.
Market Opportunity
For sellers, stable prices provide a reasonable foundation, but they should not be mistaken for guaranteed demand. Buyers remain active, although they are selective and have enough choice to compare properties carefully. Preparation, pricing and a clear response plan matter.
For buyers, subdued overall activity can provide more time to investigate and negotiate. However, Centre Wellington’s stronger June also shows why buyers should not assume that every community or neighbourhood offers the same leverage. The best opportunities are found by understanding the differences hidden beneath the averages.
The next time someone tells you what “the market” is doing, ask a more useful question: Which market, which neighbourhood, which property type and which price range?
That is usually where the more valuable conversation begins.
Have a great weekend,
Paul
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Listing Of The Week
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96 Aberdeen Street, Centre Wellington, Ontario | $719,900
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Attached Bungaloft
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2 Bedrooms
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3 Bathroomms
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1678 Sq.ft
Welcome home to this exceptional ENERGY STAR certified end-unit bungaloft, ideally located on the south end of Fergus with easy access to Guelph, Orangeville, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Designed for comfortable main-floor living, this well-appointed home features a primary bedroom with ensuite, an eat-in kitchen, formal dining area, spacious living room, convenient laundry with built-in storage, and a powder room. Upstairs, the versatile loft, additional bedroom, and full bathroom provide ideal space for guests, family, or a home office. Quality upgrades throughout set this home apart, including quartz countertops in the kitchen and all bathrooms, hardwood flooring, custom window coverings, high-end Samsung appliances, upgraded hardware, and a smart thermostat. The unfinished basement offers nearly 900 sq. ft. of future living space, while the patio and backyard provide plenty of opportunity to create your own outdoor retreat. A perfect blend of comfort, quality, and location, this move-in-ready home is not to be missed.
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Market Snapshot
The June numbers suggest that prices across Guelph and Wellington County are broadly stable, but activity remains subdued and the results are uneven beneath the surface.
In Guelph, the average sale price was $803,857 and the median was $750,000. Both were slightly higher than May, but 2.6% below June of last year. The more meaningful change was in activity: sales were down 18.2% year over year, average days on market increased to 35, and year-to-date terminations were nearly 17% higher.
Across Wellington County, the average price of $850,548 was almost unchanged from both May and June 2025. Sales were also essentially level with last year, although homes were taking longer to sell and terminations continued to rise.
Centre Wellington told a somewhat different story. June sales were up 25% from last year, while the median price rose to $828,850. However, the year-to-date median remains 2.5% below 2025, suggesting that June’s stronger result may also reflect the particular mix of properties that sold.
The broad conclusion is that prices are holding reasonably well. The more important observation is that no two communities, neighbourhoods or property types are moving in exactly the same way.
CHECK IT OUT! WE'VE JUST RELEASED OUR
May 2026 Market Report
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This report contains
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May 2026 Summary & analysis for Guelph
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Full home type breakdowns for Guelph, Centre Wellington, Kitchener, Waterloo & Cambridge
Are you curious what homes in Guelph are really selling for?
View today's sales prices, plus photos, maps & property details- imagine realtor.ca, but for sold properties!
