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Paul's Observation | The Market Isn't Stuck. It's Waiting.
The Bank of Canada announced this week that it is holding its overnight lending rate unchanged. After several reductions over the past year, we're now in a period where borrowing costs have stabilized. Normally, stable interest rates would be expected to encourage more buyers to re-enter the market. That's simply not what we're seeing, at least not in the resale market.
Many buyers remain comfortable waiting. Some believe prices may soften further. Others expect more inventory to arrive later this year. Many simply don't feel enough urgency to move today.
Sellers, on the other hand, aren't showing much urgency either. While we're seeing more pricing adjustments and relists than we've experienced over the past several years, relatively few sellers appear to be under financial pressure to accept offers they don't like. If the market doesn't respond, many are prepared to wait.
That's why I don't see today's market as weak. I see it as a market where neither side feels compelled to make the first move.
Market Opportunity | Sometimes Incentives Matter More Than Interest Rates
There is one area of the market that has my attention. Over the past several weeks, I've spoken with a number of builders who are reporting stronger activity following the announcement of the HST rebate program for qualifying new homes. Those sales don't show up in MLS statistics like the resale market does, but the shift in buyer interest is noticeable.
That tells me something important. The buyers haven't disappeared. They're simply responding when there's a compelling financial reason to act.
For some buyers, that reason is the potential savings available on a newly built home. For others, it may be finding the right resale property that has been properly priced after a few weeks on the market. Every buyer has a tipping point.
The lesson isn't that one segment of the market is better than another. It's that demand is still there. It simply needs a reason to become active.
The Bigger Picture
Real estate markets rarely change because everyone suddenly becomes optimistic. They change because enough individual buyers and sellers each decide that their circumstances make today the right time to move.
June's numbers don't tell me we're headed into a downturn.
They also don't tell me we're entering another rapidly appreciating market. What they tell me is that we're in a period where patience has become a strategy for both buyers and sellers. Eventually, one side will decide waiting is no longer in their best interest.
When that happens, momentum often returns faster than most people expect.
For now, the best opportunities continue to belong to those who understand why the market is behaving the way it is, rather than simply reacting to the monthly headlines.
I'd Love to Hear Your Perspective.
If you've been watching the market but haven't made a move yet, what's keeping you on the sidelines?Are you waiting for interest rates? More inventory? Better pricing? Or are you simply waiting for the right home?
Just hit Post a Comment and let me know. I read every response personally, and many of your questions and observations shape future editions of The Guelph Weekly Real Estate Brief.
If your situation is unique and you'd like to talk it through, I'm always happy to have a conversation. No pressure—just practical advice based on today's market.
Have a great weekend,
Paul
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Listing Of The Week
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22 Lyle Place, Guelph, Ontario | $1,350,000
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Detached Bungalow
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3 + 2 Bedrooms
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3 Bathroomms
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2045 Sq.ft
**Size Matters!** Offering more than 2,000 sq. ft. of living space on the main floor alone, this exceptional bungalow delivers the room, comfort, and flexibility today's buyers are looking for. Thoughtfully renovated in 2014, the home showcases timeless design, quality craftsmanship, and attention to detail throughout. Rich oak hardwood flooring, modern trim, and a stunning custom kitchen featuring European appliances create a sophisticated backdrop for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious main level offers three generous bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including an impressive primary suite and an oversized second bedroom that must be seen to be appreciated. Downstairs, the fully finished lower level provides expansive recreation space with endless possibilities. Whether you envision a games room, home theatre, fitness area, or hobby space, there's room for it all. With some modification, the lower level could also be well suited for an accessory apartment or spacious in-law suite. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in a neighbourhood that speaks for itself, this home sits on a generous pie-shaped lot with beautifully updated landscaping. The wraparound deck offers abundant space for outdoor dining, entertaining, and relaxation. Completing the package is an oversized double-car garage and a newly paved driveway with parking for up to four additional vehicles-ensuring plenty of space for family and guests alike. Whether you're looking for room to grow, space to entertain, or the flexibility of multi-generational living, this exceptional bungalow delivers it all. Don't miss your chance to make it yours-book your showing today before this outstanding property is gone.
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Market Snapshot | June 2026
If you're waiting for the real estate market to clearly tell us where it's headed next, June didn't provide much of an answer.
Across Wellington County, 292 properties sold in June, almost identical to the 291 sales recorded in June of last year. The average sale price was $850,548, down just 0.7% year over year, while the median sale price of $750,000 was down 4.5%.
Looking at the year-to-date numbers tells a similar story. Sales activity is down only 2.2%, while the average sale price is down 1.1%. The median sale price has softened more noticeably, down 5.3%, suggesting the greatest pressure continues to be in the entry-level and middle price ranges.
On the surface, those numbers don't suggest a market under significant stress. They suggest a market that's moving forward—but cautiously.
There's another statistic that caught my attention this month. June recorded 318 listing terminations compared with 292 completed sales. That doesn't mean 318 individual homes failed to sell. In today's market, terminating and relisting has become a common strategy, particularly when a property is introduced above where buyers see value and the price is gradually adjusted until the market responds. Some listings may be terminated and relaunched multiple times before they eventually sell.
The result is that the market can appear more efficient than it really is. Reported Days on Market often reset with a new MLS number, while the seller's actual journey may have taken considerably longer. The termination numbers tell me there's a lot more work happening beneath the surface than the headline statistics suggest.
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May 2026 Market Report
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This report contains
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May 2026 Summary & analysis for Guelph
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Full home type breakdowns for Guelph, Centre Wellington, Kitchener, Waterloo & Cambridge
Are you curious what homes in Guelph are really selling for?
View today's sales prices, plus photos, maps & property details- imagine realtor.ca, but for sold properties!
