Issue 533 | The Market Isn't Moving. People Are.

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The Market Isn't Moving. People Are.

Two of the more interesting real estate conversations I've had recently have almost nothing to do with this fall market. Both are with clients who expect changes in their lives during the second half of 2027, and neither is planning to put a For Sale sign on the lawn anytime soon.

Instead, we're beginning to talk now about what their eventual move might look like, what needs to happen between now and then, and how the real estate decision fits into the larger plans they're making. It raises a question worth considering: If you knew your life was likely to create a move sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, how early would you want to understand your options?

I've been thinking about that question while looking through August's market numbers because I believe there is something happening beneath the statistics that is easy to miss.

We May Have Been Looking at Housing Backwards

For much of the last decade, particularly during the strongest years of the market, I think we became accustomed to talking about residential real estate as an investment asset first. Conversations centred on appreciation, equity growth, how much a home had increased in value and whether someone was getting into—or out of—the market at the right time.

Those things absolutely matter. For generations of Canadian households, owning a home has also been an important savings vehicle and source of long-term wealth.

But a home is both a financial asset and a place to live. During a long period of rising prices, the financial side of that equation tended to dominate the conversation. In a market like this one, the functional side becomes harder to ignore.

Homes have to work for the lives being lived inside them. A couple has another child and needs another bedroom. Someone gets a new job farther away. Adult children leave home and maintaining the large family house starts making less sense. Parents age and need help. Two households become one, or one becomes two. Retirement changes both income and lifestyle.

None of those things waits for the real estate market to improve.

The market determines the economics of the move—what the property might be worth, what the next home will cost, how long the process could take and what compromises may be required—but life often creates the reason for moving in the first place.

Of course, needing to move and being financially able to move are not the same thing. For many households, affordability has forced their lives and their housing needs to remain out of sync for much longer than they would have preferred.

And that may be where today's market becomes interesting.

The People Who Waited Didn't Stop Living

RBC's latest housing outlook estimates that the formation of more than 400,000 Canadian households may have been suppressed since 2019, as higher ownership costs caused renters to remain renters longer and existing homeowners to postpone buying, upsizing or downsizing. RBC believes unlocking even some of that delayed demand could provide meaningful support to housing activity. (REM)

But postponing the transaction isn't the same as eliminating the reason behind it.

The family that decided not to move two years ago may still need another bedroom. Empty nesters who stayed put still have a house that may no longer fit their lifestyle. Someone may have tolerated a longer commute, while younger Canadians remained in their parents' homes longer than originally planned.

Life can create the reason to move long before the market creates the confidence—or affordability—to do it.

That may be one of the less obvious things we're beginning to see. As affordability gradually improves and people become more comfortable making decisions, some of those delayed housing changes may simply become harder—or less necessary—to postpone.

Our own brokerage experience in August doesn't prove a broader market trend, but it offers another window into how transactions are getting done. We finished the month with more than 95 firm deals, virtually identical to August of last year. There wasn't a sense of frenzy around the office, but there was good energy and a considerable amount of business getting done.

What I saw wasn't a market carrying everyone along. I saw agents spending more time talking through pricing together, helping with open houses, comparing buyer feedback and having one-on-one conversations about how to piece transactions together.

That continues some of the “grind” I wrote about last week, but there's another side to it. In this market, our job isn't necessarily to manufacture urgency. It's increasingly about helping people navigate change and figuring out whether a move can actually be made to work.

More Movement Doesn't Have to Mean Higher Prices

RBC's outlook is interesting for the same reason. It is forecasting Ontario home sales to rise 8.2% in 2027 while home values increase just 0.7%. Nationally, RBC expects sales to increase 6.7%, but cautions that the recovery is likely to be irregular, with affordability remaining a significant constraint. (REM)

In other words, the next stage of the market could involve more people moving without dramatically higher prices.

That's remarkably similar to what August's local numbers are beginning to suggest. Transactions were ahead of last August across all three reports, while prices remained lower, most homes continued to sell below asking and marketing periods remained relatively long.

We've become accustomed to measuring the health of the housing market primarily by what happens to prices. Perhaps another measure is how effectively the market allows people to make the moves their lives require.

A market where buyers and sellers have to negotiate, compromise and eventually find workable terms may not produce exciting headlines. It may, however, be a more functional market, where transactions happen because two sides can eventually find enough common ground to move forward.

Spring 2027 May Have Already Started

Which brings me back to those two conversations I mentioned at the beginning.

Neither client is trying to predict precisely what their house will be worth next spring. We're talking about much more practical questions: timing, preparation, alternatives and how one decision affects the next. By the time their properties eventually reach the market, much of the important thinking may already have been done.

That's something sellers sometimes underestimate. The spring market doesn't really begin when the snow melts and the signs appear on the lawns. For some people, Spring 2027 begins with decisions being made around the kitchen table this fall.

But planning early does not mean moving early.

Sometimes the result of an early conversation is that nothing needs to happen for six or nine months. That's useful information too. It provides time to understand what a property might sell for, what the next purchase might cost, whether renovations make financial sense, whether buying or selling first is the better strategy and what options exist if next year's market looks very much like today's.

Those questions are considerably easier to work through twelve months before a move than twelve days before one.

Conversation Starter

So perhaps the most useful question heading into September isn't simply, “Is the real estate market finally getting better?”

A better question might be:

“What is likely to change in our lives over the next 12 to 18 months, and could our housing needs change with it?”

There will be another interest-rate announcement, another economic forecast and another headline telling us that housing is either recovering or getting worse. Those things deserve attention, but they are only part of the decision.

Life will continue regardless of what the market is doing, and eventually our housing decisions have to catch up with it.

The market may not be moving very quickly. People still are.

If a move could be part of your plans for 2027 and you're not currently working with another Realtor, I'm always happy to start the conversation early. There may be nothing you need to do today, and sometimes knowing that is every bit as useful as knowing what you should do next.

Have a great weekend,

Paul

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August Market Snapshot

On the surface, August still looks like a challenging real estate market. In Guelph, 135 properties sold, down 9.4% from July but up 6.3% from August 2025. The median selling price was $722,689, down 4.7% year over year, while more than 81% of properties sold below their asking price and the average sale-to-list-price ratio was 97.2%.

Across Wellington County, 269 properties sold, down 4.9% from July but 10.7% ahead of last August. Median price was $725,000, down 5.2% year over year, while average days on market increased to 50.

In the Centre Wellington, Wellington North, Minto and Guelph/Eramosa area, transactions were also ahead of last year, up 4.6%, despite a median selling price 8% below August 2025. Average days on market increased to 66 and 89% of properties sold below their asking price.

One month doesn't make a trend, and these statistics can't tell us why an individual household decided to move. The year-to-date numbers also remind us how uneven this market remains: Guelph transactions are still 10.2% behind last year, Wellington County is essentially flat at -0.3%, while the Centre Wellington-area report is 12.6% ahead.

But August gives us something worth watching. Transactions increased year over year in all three reports without a corresponding return of pricing power. Buyers are still disciplined, sellers are negotiating and properties generally require more time to sell.

That's not what another real estate boom looks like. It may tell us something more interesting about why people are moving.

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